Abstract
Strategic foresight and intuitive logics (IL) are the overall directions that constitute the foundation in the scenario understanding presented in this review; they both rely on a combination of data-information and intuition-imagination. Strategic foresight combined with design and innovation research has a strong ability to concentrate and provoke imaginative thinking in engaging visual, tangible, and embodied methods. Future stories, journeys and cycles are central terms for the mediums and methods being used. Scenario development in strategic foresight starts by looking outward by first identifying and then clustering external driving forces that could lead to change, and only after these steps can the scenarios assist in internal strategic visioning activities. We call this approach outside-in imaginative scenario development.
Strategic foresight creates a successful impact if carefully integrated in the organisation on all strategic levels. The VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) conditions that organisations have to deal with today is used to illustrate the crucial need for strategic foresight and continuous organisational learning. The organisational integration therefore already starts before identifying and selecting participants for the scenario development. Models to deal with the innovator’s dilemma and organisational ambidexterity - essentially understood as the balance between on-going operations (microscope) and innovation (telescope) - are the first step to anchoring and positioning strategic foresight in the organisation, as well as to select participants for the scenario development along with other sub-criteria for the selection.
Strategic foresight and scenario development can contribute to all strategic layers in the organisation as a precursor - for instance products/services, business models, ways of organising, and visions/strategy.
One concrete Outside-in approach is suggested for Region Midt with three rounds and including considerations over the placement of historical analysis and organisational resilience additions. This approach is divided into a short pre-round followed by two major rounds. In the pre-round vital conditions for the scenario development and organisational learning approach are decided - such as focal issues to address, time horizons in the scenarios and participation.
The first major round focuses on the outside with three stages starting with identifying and clustering driving forces. After this, outlines for the story that will be turned into a scenario is created through a specific scenario analysing approach for instance backcasting, extremes, branching, alternatives or layered. With this the stories are turned into scenarios with rich details and in tangible, role-played representations. The second major round focuses on bringing the scenarios (outside) into organisational, strategic levels. Consisting also of three stages, this round starts with horizon scanning and early warning detections as well as simulations of future markets to access possible actions and reactions. After this, the plausible scenarios are balanced with preferred visions of the future for the organisation. Finally, steps are taken to avoid first problems with business-as-usual routines and innovation barriers, if the future visions should come alive.
The Outside-In approach is further strengthened by instantiating boundaryless conditions in the organisation to aim for a double purpose of preparing grounds for the future and to some degree break down silos in the process. This is supported by including methods and techniques that relies on visual, tangible, embodied ways of reaching experiential learning bringing tacit knowledge to the surface and accessing higher imaginative thoughts from the stakeholders. Role-play is applied as well to create surprise framings and challenge assumptions, while video and
potentially animation as a sense-giving communicative way can be used to communicate scenarios, visions, results and outcomes to the next circle of stakeholders who was not involved to begin with.
Strategic foresight creates a successful impact if carefully integrated in the organisation on all strategic levels. The VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity) conditions that organisations have to deal with today is used to illustrate the crucial need for strategic foresight and continuous organisational learning. The organisational integration therefore already starts before identifying and selecting participants for the scenario development. Models to deal with the innovator’s dilemma and organisational ambidexterity - essentially understood as the balance between on-going operations (microscope) and innovation (telescope) - are the first step to anchoring and positioning strategic foresight in the organisation, as well as to select participants for the scenario development along with other sub-criteria for the selection.
Strategic foresight and scenario development can contribute to all strategic layers in the organisation as a precursor - for instance products/services, business models, ways of organising, and visions/strategy.
One concrete Outside-in approach is suggested for Region Midt with three rounds and including considerations over the placement of historical analysis and organisational resilience additions. This approach is divided into a short pre-round followed by two major rounds. In the pre-round vital conditions for the scenario development and organisational learning approach are decided - such as focal issues to address, time horizons in the scenarios and participation.
The first major round focuses on the outside with three stages starting with identifying and clustering driving forces. After this, outlines for the story that will be turned into a scenario is created through a specific scenario analysing approach for instance backcasting, extremes, branching, alternatives or layered. With this the stories are turned into scenarios with rich details and in tangible, role-played representations. The second major round focuses on bringing the scenarios (outside) into organisational, strategic levels. Consisting also of three stages, this round starts with horizon scanning and early warning detections as well as simulations of future markets to access possible actions and reactions. After this, the plausible scenarios are balanced with preferred visions of the future for the organisation. Finally, steps are taken to avoid first problems with business-as-usual routines and innovation barriers, if the future visions should come alive.
The Outside-In approach is further strengthened by instantiating boundaryless conditions in the organisation to aim for a double purpose of preparing grounds for the future and to some degree break down silos in the process. This is supported by including methods and techniques that relies on visual, tangible, embodied ways of reaching experiential learning bringing tacit knowledge to the surface and accessing higher imaginative thoughts from the stakeholders. Role-play is applied as well to create surprise framings and challenge assumptions, while video and
potentially animation as a sense-giving communicative way can be used to communicate scenarios, visions, results and outcomes to the next circle of stakeholders who was not involved to begin with.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Publikationsdato | jun. 2021 |
| Antal sider | 49 |
| Status | Udgivet - jun. 2021 |
Kunstnerisk udviklingsvirksomhed (KUV)
- Nej